Tis the season to share our unwanted political opinions. I would have preferred not to write this, but if we don’t use our voice, we become part of the problem. If you have the right to vote, please vote. Despite popular rhetoric, some of us can’t and don’t actually vote.
This was easier to explain when Biden was the candidate. Immigrants survived 4 years of Trump, and we survived 4 years of Biden. We also survived 16 years of Bush and Obama. Watching politicians make promises is the definition of insanity. Every four years candidates tell their subordinates what they want to hear. And every term is essentially the same. Politicians make decisions based on what will serve them best.
If you can look at the last 8 years without polarized eyes. If you can remove yourself from your hatred of the opposing party. It is easy to see that our elections are just vast pendulum swings of rhetoric with critical similarities in the results. Biden’s and Trump’s presidencies were both plagued with a pandemic during their terms. Both experienced rapid inflation due to that pandemic.
Unemployment was around 4% through most of Trump’s presidency until the pandemic caused a huge spike. Unemployment has now returned to around 4% and will likely level off to the mean in the next 4 years, despite who is president. The national debt grew by more than $7 trillion in each of Trump’s and Biden’s terms.
There were 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States at the beginning of the Trump presidency. That number roughly remained the same in both 2020 and through 2023. It is also true that during that period and before, undocumented immigrants’ crime rate has been much lower than citizens and documented immigrants.
It is all just rhetoric, and the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans. Democrats are constantly using the LGBT community and women’s reproductive rights to demonize Republicans. Neither side ever truly focuses on leadership. Both sides constantly leverage specialized groups to mobilize their base against the other side.
After 37 years of living in this country as an undocumented immigrant, I know that no matter who wins the presidency, the people will inevitably lose again.
What makes this election unique to me is January 6th, 2021. If you believe that Jan 6th was no big deal, I can’t communicate with you. If we can’t agree on what we both saw happened that day, then the facts won’t matter to you. If you believe 2020 was a stolen election, then you will accept nothing other than your own reality and it is impossible to reason with you.
I live in the suburbs outside of DC. I remember talking with people in my community in 2020 and expressing my concern that Trump would not leave the White House if he lost. I was reassured by Washingtonians that the Constitution provided safeguards to prevent Trump from staging a coup.
They were right, the system worked and Trump’s attempted coup failed. The concern is that Trump now knows what the safeguards are, and will have 4 years to prepare to defeat them.
I’m not worried about the next 4 years. Tell yourself you are voting for women’s reproductive rights. Or that you are voting to lower your grocery and gasoline bills. Tell yourselves that the world will end if your candidate doesn’t win.
I’ve listened to both sides of the aisle. Neither side communicates. Both sides believe the candidate they oppose is pure evil. Both sides cannot phantom the other’s point of view. In the end, we are just swinging the pendulum further and further from one polarized side to the other.
The only issue that really matters is the 2028 election. Whether Trump wins or loses in 2024, he will be on the ballot in 2028. But if he wins in 2024 he will be running for a third term in 2028. The 22nd Amendment of the Constitution reads: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”
Trump will also violate this section of the Constitution. He will say two things: one, this country has never been better than during his presidency, and two, the world is in turmoil, and it is necessary that Trump run for a third term. The best predictor of future behavior is prior behavior.
What the 2024 election has taught us, is that Trump owns the Republican Party. It was laughable how easily he defeated other Republicans in the primaries. They will give Trump the nomination without contest. The Democrats’ objections will be equally feeble. They will be outraged by the violation of the 22nd Amendment and will build their candidate’s campaign around that violation.
What the 2020 election has taught us is that a record number of voters will turn out to defeat two consecutive Trump presidential terms, regardless of the Democratic candidate. Like in 2020, Trump will overwhelmingly lose the 2028 election, and he will again deny the election results.
However, in 2028, JD Vance will not certify the election. The mob that gathers on the National Mall in January 2029 will be armed with guns. Every secret service agent assigned to the presidential detail will be a Trump loyalist who will not escort Trump out of the White House. Trump will stay president despite losing both the popular vote and the electoral college.
When that happens free and fair elections will end in the United States. From local elections to Senate races, other politicians will start seizing power by force as early as 2028. After 2028 voting will no longer matter, as those in power will determine the winners of elections. America will become a pseudo-democracy like Venezuela and Russia.
I am certain that neither Harris nor Trump will have a good presidency over the next 4 years. I also think it is okay if Trump wins. If the electoral college selects Trump over Harris that would be the Will of the People. If that is what a majority of the States elect, then the system still works the way it is supposed to.
But don’t pretend you support Trump out of patriotism, love of the Constitution, or even faith in God. Just admit the truth. You are willing to trade free and fair elections, and the will of an electoral majority, for a guarantee that the individual in charge thinks exactly like you.
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